Hosted By: Society of Professional Journalists San Diego

My Role: Speaker

Other Featured Speakers: Sylvia Mendoza, Freelance Writer & Maria Villalobos, Freelance Producer/Reporter

Description: Some turn to freelance work when they’re in between jobs or to supplement their income, but some manage to make freelancing work for them all the time. Join these successful freelancers as they share strategies, tips and secrets for how to successfully be your own boss – and make money.

A nine-year-old girl, impressionistic and dreamy, feels God has called to her through the voice of a missionary who speaks to her Catholic school class.

Poignant and insightful, The Red Skirt gives an unflinching glimpse of one woman’s internal, and decidedly human, struggle to leave behind the young, fearful girl who could not shake the words of the missionary.

Taking the name of Sister Marie Petra, she begins to grow with guidance from her new family of “sisters;” at times dysfunctional, but always loving and supportive at their core. She only hopes that she can depend upon their compassion and understanding when she tells the order she’s leaving…forever.

Excellence and Diligence

“Helen Chang, wow, we did it! From book jail to book hell to book heaven, all in a few months. Thank you for all your hard work, countless hours, and all-nighters with this project. Your work ethic is unbelievable. You are a woman of excellence and
diligence. This project would not exist without you. I enjoyed working with you, and I love your heart for people.”

- Dani Johnson, First Steps to Wealth, Acknowledgments chapter

Attention to Detail and Patience

“When it comes to the success of this book, I must thank my writer, Helen Chang. Helen, you kept me on track and focused during the craziest times of my life. Your attention to detail and patience, while translating my voice onto the pages of this book, is nothing less than outstanding.”

- Armando Montelongo, Flip and Grow Rich, Acknowledgments chapter

NAME: Aaron Contorer

WHAT HE DOES: Full-time philanthropist, former Microsoft manager

CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION: Social Venture Partners, a philanthropy group founded by former Microsoft employees, with 1600 members worldwide, including 130 member sin San Diego

WHAT IT DOES: Pools funds to invest in charitable causes, while holding the non-profit groups accountable for hitting targets.

CONTRIBUTION: Each member contributes $5,000 a year for 5 years

SAN DIEGO
CONTRIBUTIONS FISCAL 2005-6:$320,000, leveraged into “social value” of $2.3 million

NEW FUND LAUNCHED: $1 million to fund non-profit organizations working on the issue of clean water

WHAT HE LEARNED AT MICROSOFT: Contorer said, “Many of us employees were lucky enough to have stock options in Microsoft, so a lot of us ended up with extra money that we weren’t expecting. I was personally fascinated by how some people became very generous with extra money and others did not at all.

Some people believe you can never have enough and some people believe you always have enough. And the question is: what are you going to do with the next thing you get?”

“When you see the pleasure in helping an organization to help hundreds of other people, it feels like, buying an extra plasma TV or another car isn’t gratifying at all compared to that.

I now believe that spending my money to help people and improve the world is so much more gratifying.”

PROVEN MODEL:
SVP holds grantees accountable, requiring quarterly targets and updates. SVP also puts a member on the non-profit group’s board, to advise them during the three-year term. SVP members also volunteer, typically 1,000 hours per year. If the group does not hit its targets, funding stops. “We really follow up again and again and again during the period of the grant,” said Contorer. “People tell us our time and management skills are worth more than
the checks.”

CLEAN WATER: SVP’s new $1 million fund will work with several groups on the issue of clean water in San Diego. “It is an issue everyone agrees is important,”said Contorer. “We love our home. We love San Diego. We need to find out what is required to keep this place great.”

This fund will support several groups spanning environmental, scientific, academic, military and government groups.

“Philanthropy is at a minimum about teaching them how to fish, and at the maximum it’s about restructuring the entire fishing industry to feed the whole world much better than it ever did before,” said Contorer.

The fund help various groups asses the community’s needs on several issues, including: air, land, energy, global warming, and development. The means understanding the issues and its cost to society, said Contorer, then creating solutions and working together to achieve those goals.

“Environmental groups don’t fix the environment alone. They work with businesses to change how things are done. They work with government to change how regulation and spending are done.”

“We’re not the experts on the environment. Our goal is to support them. What are we experts on? Management and writing checks.”

ROI: “What price tag do you put on finding a home for a foster child?” asked Contorer. “What price tag do you put on not polluting our water systems, so that the beaches don’t close? You can do an economic impact analysis on any of these and show in the first case that they are worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. And to avoid a beach closure is worth millions.”

“Normally, I get a profit back directly” said Contorer. “In this case, we’re talking about social profits. We want to invest in organizations that are doing something so good for our society that the benefits are worth the cost. That is social profit. We live here, so we want San Diego to get the profit.”

“But we don’t really look at it that way. We look at what people are passionate about. People are passionate about helping our children. People are passionate about protecting our homes and our environment. You can’t just put a price tag on those. “

WEB: sdsvp.org

Follow Helen on Twitter @helenchang.

What does 2007 hold?

A lot depends on the Fed. The housing market. Gas prices. And you – the consumer.

Most economists looking into San Diego’s economic crystal ball predict an economic slowdown in 2007 – but not a recession. This will be followed by more growth in 2008.

While some parts of the economy may languish, San Diego overall will remain resilient because of our basket of industries, economists said. Weaknesses in some sectors will be offset by strengths in others. Weak industries: housing and construction. Strong ones: defense, biotech, tourism, professional services, and entrepreneurship.

San Diego economists generally agree:

“2007 will be slower, but we won’t go into recession,” said Kelly Cunningham, economist and senior fellow at the San Diego Institute for Policy Research. He is also the longstanding author of the annual economic forecast published by the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.

“I think the local economy is going to slowdown considerably in 2007,” said Alan Gin, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Diego and publisher of the monthly Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County. “I don’t anticipate any sort of recession.”

Ditto for Marney Cox, chief economist of the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG): “Because of relative weakness in the economy, overall gross regional product in 2007 will be less than it was 2006. I’m not expecting a recession.”

Generally, the US and California economies are headed south. Since San Diego tends to be a forerunner of trends, we headed south sooner than the rest of the state and country – especially in 2006. But we will also head north sooner, which means the region will outperform California and the nation in 2007, said Cunningham. “San Diego is leading the rest of California and the United States.”

THE FED

Who’s the Big Daddy here? The Fed. A lot depends on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates next year – and that means: up, down or not at all.

A quick Econ review might be useful.

The Fed’s main motivation is to stabilize the economy. Its two main goals: make sure the price of things does not get out of hand (control inflation) and keep people working (reduce unemployment). Its tools: the interest rates. If the Fed raises interest rates, making the cost of money more expensive, the economy slows down and inflation is kept in check. If the Fed lowers interest rates, money is cheaper, so businesses expand activity, more people are hired and the economy speeds up.

Since 2004 — when interest rates were at all-time lows and the economy was on overdrive — the Fed has been slowly notching up interest rates, putting the brakes on the economy. That’s why the Fed took a breather in late 2006.

“The Fed achieved what it set out to do,” said Cox.

THE INTEREST-RATE WILDCARD

Now, the question is: will the Fed keep raising those rates? Or hold steady? Or even lower the rates?

The economists differ in opinion:

Cunningham: “I think they will leave them alone, at least for the first half of 2007.”

Cox: “I think it will hold steady. If the Federal Reserve has to continue to raise interest rates, it will weaken employment and further weaken the housing market, and may push the economy into recession. It won’t take much to push it over the edge.”

Gin: “I think by the end of 2007, they’ll cut short term interest rates by a full 0.5 percent – because of the slowing overall of the national economy. My guess is that in the second quarter of 2007, the national economy is going to show severe signs of a slowdown.”

So San Diego’s economy will slow down in 2007. But total output will still break records, according to the Chamber report. And the region still runs ahead the state and national rates.

In its economic forecast, the SD Regional Chamber estimates:

San Diego’s GRP (gross regional product)

• 2006 – $150 billion
• 2007 – $157 billion

San Diego’s GRP growth rate, adjusted for inflation

• 2006 – 2.9 percent
• 2007 – 2.5 percent

If San Diego were a nation, it would be ranked the 36^th largest economy in the world, based on the 2005 GRP of $142 billion, according to statistics compiled by the San Diego Regional Chamber.

Despite the slowdown, San Diego’s economic outlook is bright. “It’s still a great place to live,” said Cunningham, “as long as you have housing.”

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

The economy is sometimes a perception game. If enough people think it’s going to slow down, it will. If enough people think it’s going to heat up, it will. In the housing market, the perception that prices will drop causes a waiting game that feeds that result. If enough people start new companies, unemployment will abait.

We are all part of a larger economy. But we also create our own personal economies. Your personal economy may slow, but it does not have to go into recession.

This article is part of a comprehensive economic outlook. See related stories:

• The Housing Market
• 2007’s Strongest Industries
• Population Changes & Employment

Follow Helen on Twitter @helenchang.

San Diego’s population is growing in seniors and foreigners.

In the last 15 years, the region has actually seen a decline in people ages 25 to 35, young people who would be starting careers and families in San Diego. Instead, they are moving to Riverside, Imperial Valley and Mexico, where housing costs are more affordable. “They’re still accessing the (SD) job markets,” said Cox. “They’re just not in the county boundaries.”

Meanwhile, people ages 35 to 65 have increased in numbers. This means industries such as healthcare will keep growing, said Gin. At the same time, more foreigners have moved to San Diego, mostly from Mexico and Latin America.

While the region had huge population inflows in the late 90s, that growth has slowed in recent years. San Diego’s population growth, according to the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce:

• 2002: 51,542
• 2006: 26,200
• 2007: 25,000 projected
• Total population projected in 2007: 3.12 million

EMPLOYMENT

San Diego will have fewer new jobs in 2007, economists said, but unemployment rates will remain stable.

In the last couple of years, the county has added 20,00 new jobs a year. In 2007, Cox expects this to dip to 18,000 new jobs. Gin is more conservative, placing that number at 15,000 new jobs in 2007.

In the past, about 35% of new jobs were in the construction industry. As the housing industry weakens, those jobs will evaporate. But the strong number of visitor industry jobs will ease this decline, said Cox.

Are all the new jobs in low-paying service industries? No. VC and grant money pouring into the region contributes to more middle-income jobs, said Cox. Also, the large number of down-sized employees who start new businesses creates a hidden employment that economists currently cannot account for.

The region’s unemployment rate is expected to remain stable, at about four percent. (Full unemployment is five to 5.5 percent. “We’re way below the state and nation,” said Cox.)

GAS PRICES

Gas prices also hurt or help the economy. More money at the pump means less money for other things. It also affects consumer confidence.

Gin estimates that every 10-cent raise in gas prices costs San Diego $7 million in the overall economy – each month. “People would be spending that money on gasoline when they could have been spending it on other things,” he said.

Despite the recent reprieve in gas prices, get ready for more sticker shock, said Gin. “In 2007, I think we will see a spike up again, due to economic factors, due to developments in the Middle East and worldwide demand for oil.”

This article is part of a comprehensive economic outlook. See related stories:

• The Housing Market
• 2007’s Strongest Industries
• Population Changes & Employment

Follow Helen on Twitter @helenchang.

San Diego’s growing industries will pick up slack in the housing market, economists said. These industries include: military, biotech, tourism, healthcare, professional services and entrepreneurship.

MILITARY

War helps. San Diego’s defense industry has enjoyed a spike in recent years, due to 9/11 and war in Iraq. Even with plans to pull U.S. troops from the Middle East, as Democrats gained controlled of the House and Senate, this industry will hold strong. This is because San Diego’s defense industry has already shifted its focus: from manufacturing hardware to innovating technology and surveillance systems. This means the industry will stay busy in peacetime, said Cox.

Defense industry job numbers, according to Cox:

• 2003: 17,000
• 2006: 20,000
• 2007: 20,500 to 20,600 projected

BIOTECH & TELECOMMUNICATIONS

These industries bring in moolah. It’s mostly through venture capital funds, initial public offerings (IPOs), and research grants.

VCs are have been pouring some $1 billion a year into San Diego companies in the last three years, and 2007 is expected to bring more, said Cox. About 40 percent of that money goes into biotech start-ups. Another 15 percent to 20 percent goes to telecommunication companies. When those companies grow, their Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) bring in more bucks.

Government research grants are also adding dollars. The University of California San Diego (UCSD) is now the fifth largest recipients of such grants, although it has historically been in the top 10. This money ripples out into the economy, as UCSD scientists partner with private businesses on projects.

“This is a big difference in the way our economy used to run, versus the way it’s run today,” said Cox. “We’re much more dependant on this type of funding today for the types of businesses we have. Either initial public offerings (IPOs), venture capital funds, or public/private partnerships in terms of research grants.”

TOURISM

Tourists spend money. And we have lots of them, especially from neighboring areas. The tourism industry continued to grow in 2006 and is expected to remain strong in 2007. In 2005, a record 27.2 million visited America’s finest, spending a chart-topping $5.8 billion. That number continued to rise, though moderately, in 2006.

But a downturn in the national economy will hurt San Diego’s tourism sector, said Gin.”If you see a slowdown in the national economy, our tourism will be adversely affected. People won’t travel much.” Where might new tourists come from? Said Gin: “China.”

HEALTHCARE

The growing number of retirees and seniors in San Diego is boosting the healthcare and social services industries. Not to mention other industries. “Aging people are most likely to travel and spend more, and they have the money to do it,” said Cunningham.

BUSINESS SERVICES

Professional services will continue to rise, riding on growth industries such as technology, biotech and defense. These services include accounting, legal, human resources, copying services and so on.

ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Entrepreneurs fuel San Diego’s economy.

“Our economy has done so well because of our entrepreneurial companies,” said Cunningham. “San Diego attracts people who are entrepreneurial, that like to do the high tech side, do the research and want to start their own business. That really has been a driver of our economy.”

Gin said: “It’s a growing sector and San Diego in particular has a lot more of that than in other places. You don’t have as entrenched an economy that depends on big manufacturing firms, Fortune 500 companies. The companies in San Diego tend to be smaller, there’s more of an entrepreneurial spirit.”

Current employment figures do not account for entrepreneurs – fresh and down-sized corporate guns who start new businesses. But Cunningham estimates that this group makes up some 15 percent of the total workforce.

Can entrepreneurs escape a downturn? Said Gin: “You can start your own business, but you’re going to be affected by the overall economy. If the economy goes into a slump, that’s going to affect the demand for your company’s products.”

“The small companies tend to be a little more flexible, so they may be a bit better at adapting to a slower economy. On the other hand, they don’t have the financial assets that it takes to weather a significant slowdown,” said Gin.

This article is part of a comprehensive economic outlook. See related stories:

• The Housing Market
• Growing a Basket of Industries
• Population Changes & Employment

Follow Helen on Twitter @helenchang.

The biggest industry at stake: Housing.

We all know how crazy San Diego’s housing market got in recent years. Now, the party is over. In a way, it’s a good thing. “It’s time we were pausing to catch our breath,” said Cunningham.

In fact, all three economists surveyed said they thought housing prices would drop by five percent in 2007, before heading up again in late 2007 and early 2008, because of consistent demand.

The housing sector has the largest domino effect on the rest of the economy. The greatest impact: jobs and disposable income.

Here’s what happens: Fed raises interest rates =>housing sales slow => building development slows => construction job lay-offs increase => less spending in the economy => slower economy.

The housing market is already putting on the brakes. The stats are:

• Fewer workers in the construction industry.
• Fewer building permits.
• Retail store Home Depot posted decreased sales in third quarter 2006.

Rate hikes will hit paychecks hard. Because of the high number of homeowners with adjustable interest rate loans – 30 percent of all loans – homeowners will be pressed for funds.

Here’s the scenario: Fed raises interest rates => higher monthly payments on interest-only loans => more salaries spent on mortgage payments=> less disposable income => slower economy.

Housing equity is also topped out. Because so many people sucked money out of their equity – adding some $9 billion to the economy in recent years –this source of money in the economy is no longer available, said Cox.

The domino effect of the housing market spreads to other industries, including: lending, financing, broking, escrow, suppliers and retail stores.

A rate hike could send this sector over the edge. “The housing market is at a very vulnerable point,” said Cox.

This article is part of a comprehensive economic outlook. See related stories:

Growing a Basket of Industries
2007’s Strongest Industries
Population Changes & Employment
Other Economic Insights

Follow Helen on Twitter @helenchang.